Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Notes
Archive
About
Introducing the Flat Circle Arena
Benchmarking forecasting LLMs against the hedge fund use case
Oct 16
•
Jim Moran
February 2025
Flat Circle - How Claude 3.7 makes better investment decisions
Plus: 1 new research paper, 3 new articles and 4 new hedge fund LLM jobs
Feb 25
•
Jim Moran
2
Flat Circle - Contrasting good vs poor reasoning
Plus: Grok and o1 share the lead, 10 billion times more compute, more deep researchers
Feb 20
•
Jim Moran
Flat Circle - o1 now best performing model
Plus: the models are correlated, Deep Research + Deep Research
Feb 11
•
Jim Moran
1
January 2025
Flat Circle - Are we merely flipping coins?
Plus: adding new Gemini model, upgrading context template, risk analysis for Grok and Sonnet, and 16 upcoming earnings calls
Jan 28
•
Jim Moran
1
Flat Circle - More information, lower accuracy?
Plus: Two research papers, 7 upcoming earnings, another system upgrade
Jan 22
•
Jim Moran
Grok and Anthropic calling more than two thirds of earnings correctly
Plus: 11 upcoming earnings and several upgrades to our system
Jan 16
•
Jim Moran
Learnings from new model
Plus: Calls on APLD and KBH, reconciling DAL, STZ, TLRY and WBA hits and misses
Jan 13
•
Jim Moran
Grok-2 in the lead after 5 earnings
So far Grok-2 up 36%, o1 +10%, Claude +9%, Gemini down 19%
Jan 9
•
Jim Moran
Flat Circle - Can the best LLMs predict company earnings?
Benchmarking how OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini and xAI's latest models play the hardest game in the world
Jan 8
•
Jim Moran
1
Flat Circle LLM Benchmark - Methodology
Assessing LLMs' ability to play the hardest game in the world
Jan 8
•
Jim Moran
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
